Oscars 2016 Predictions

The Oscars are upon us once again. I know I know, yeah it’s a pretentious self-glorifying show about putting on a show in shows. It’s a showy, shallowy need to re-affirm how important and great the people in the industry are. To dampen it’s validity even more, #OscarsSoWhite hangs like a dark cloud over the predominantly white nominees who will be at the Dolby Theatre come sunday night. Expect Chris Rock to pounce on this all throughout the night. It’s not really the academy’s fault, but it has been taking most of the blame for the lack of diversity. It stems more from the starting point of a reluctance to cast more actors/directors/writers of colour. Nevertheless, there’s still a problem. Many many problems.

Still, I’m pretty excited for it. Because in the end, there’s still a ton of deserving artists’ who I’d love to see win, and because of a huge cinephile, I can forgive the extravagant goodie-bags and personalities who think they’re bigger than everything…I’m genuinely excited and am cheering my favourites on! Though the Oscars will have to shake-off their obssession with patronising films that are safe period pieces more concerned with social decorum than story…and finally start recognizing more obscure indie/independent films that are genre-defying and inventive, I know there’s many hard working people out there on Sunday night who have wowed us. From cinematography to acting, from editing sounds behind the scenes to writing a damn awesome script, the Oscars is at least somewhat validated.

Without further ado (and I’m so EXCITED WOO to share with ya’ll who I think should and will win), LET’S GET IT OAN! I left out a handful of categories as I haven’t seen them yet.

Best Picture

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Should Win: Room

Will Win: The Revenant

the revenant shocked face

If you placed the voting balloting paper in my hands, I’d choose Room with all the conviction inside me. It was my best movie of the year and unparalleled in it’s message that love can transcend all boundaries. It’s nuanced portrayal of emotions is complex and deserves more credit than it has received. But if I were to predict who would win, it’s going to be The Revenant. It’s won many of the precursors but maybe not the most important one which went to The Big Short (Producer’s Guild Awards). Spotlight has been gaining strength in numbers too and has always been in the conversation. This is really a tough one to call. Who would voters think more highly of? A beautifully brutal western frontier thriller about revenge? A half comical-half serious take on the 0 financial crises? The film about passionate journalists who stuck to finding the truth and exposing a heinous crime involving the most powerful religious institution in the world? My pick is The Revenant. But even I can’t call this race with certainty.

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

LEO HAS TO WIN. WHY? HAS TO. THAT IS ALL. Also because the rest with the excpetion of Michael Fassbender has something to challenge Leo. Fassbender was good but Leo was just better. On a side note, I’m so happy Abraham Attah won best actor for Beasts Of No Nation in the film independent spirit awards. He’s only 11!

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Should Win: Brie Larson

Will Win: Brie Larson

room light

Brie Larson was simply flawless. Brie cheese say what? Yeah, no more confusions and perplexing faces after her performance in Room. She conveyed something so real and powerful, words can’t do her performance justice. Saoirse Ronan gave a really good one too and will be the dark horse.

Best Director

Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Should Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu

Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu

My preferred nominees included Inarritu, Kaufman, Panahi, Sean Baker and Cary Fukanaga. Quite different huh. But whatever, these directors were really good as well. I think Inarritu’s the most deserving of the lot although I’d love to see Lenny Abrahamson win just because it was already a shocker he was nominated. To win it will certainly be a little too much for weak hearts. Anyways, Inarritu’s film was really quite something, quite brutal, quite beautiful and all natural. It was so exhilirating and pretty well-executed. I’m still a little skeptical that they would give him since he just won for Birdman last year, but eh who knows, he’s been winning all of the preceding awards so far.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, “The Big Short”
Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”

Should Win: Sylvester Stallone

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone

creed sylvester stallone thinking.jpg

Whenever I look at this category, I think of Idris Elba. Then I think of Steve Carell. Then Benicio Del Toro and Oscar Isaac and Sylvester Stallone. 4 have been snubbed imo. So Sylvester Stallone gets I guess?! LOL. A very deserving performance which shows he still has that firepower and mettle to stick with a character that’s super iconic. By taking a different perspective as Rocky the coach to Apollo Creed’s son, Stallone is convincing, earnestly gracious and passionate in his role. BAM. POW. Stallone far outshines the other nominees here.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
Rooney Mara, “Carol”
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”

Should Win: Alicia Vikander

Will Win: Kate Winslet

To be honest, if you’ve seen my own nominations for this category, it’s really a fight between Alicia in Ex Machina and Mya Taylor for Tangerine (who just won her independent film spirit award. Wooohoo!) So Alicia Vikander has my vote here for the rather tone-down The Danish Girl. Tangerine was the better transgender movie that really deserves more recognition. Kate Winslet however might prove to be too strong since she’s won most of the precursors and her performance can’t be easily faulted.

Best Cinematography

Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Should Win: The Revenant

Will Win: The Revenant

the revenant gif.gif

Ed Lachlan’s Carol is beautiful. Roger Deakins so deserves it after being nominated 13 times and not winning a single one. Mad Max and The Hateful Eight have their appeal. But nothing and no one stops Emmanuel “Chivo” Lubezki aka THE MOST TALENTED CINEMATOGRAPHER DEAD OR ALIVE aka THE DESTROYER OF DREAMS aka THE GUY WHO HAS ZERO AIR BUT CRAZY TALENT. Having won for Gravity and Birdman in 2014 and 2015, Chivo has shot the most brutal and ravishing film of the year. He will make this a three-in-a-row. I’m just in awe. There is no fight here.

 

 

Best Original Screenplay

Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Should Win: Ex Machina

Will Win: Spotlight

ex machina ava reflection

Basically, to me, it’s really between Ex Machina, Inside Out and Spotlight. The sentiment is quite split between the three but I think academy voters will give it to Spotlight especially IF it doesn’t win Best Picture. This will be the consolation prize and it’s a pretty good one. I mean, it’s also the most important movie of 2015 so it’s hard to argue against it. But I’m the kind of guy who likes more inventiveness. So Ex Machina is my choice. I’d be sooo happy if it wins because quite frankly, there’s no other movie this year that will get you thinking for days. Survival? Darwinism? Pygmalion Effect? Greek Tragedy? Feminism? Power-play and manipulation? A ode to Isaac Asimov’s The Last Question? It’s really up to your interpretation. This sci-fi film is the best sci-fi film ever made. Period.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Should Win: Room

Will Win: The Big Short

I find Emma Donoghue’s adaptation something of a wonder. It’s so mighty difficult to adapt something like that especially because working with a rigid environment requires other aspects like dialogue and acting power to compensate. Considering how well the story flowed and all the nuances in the script, Room gets my vote. But you know, after the PGA win, The Big Short is the hot favourite. It’s a good adaptation albeit one with flaws by being a little too smart. Expect Phyllis Nagy’s Carol to give The Big Short a close fight.

 

 

Best Animated Feature

Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Should Win: Anomalisa

Will Win: Inside Out

Anomalisa michael and lisa 1inside out hug

 

 

I just did my thoughts on it in the post Best Animated Films of 2015; My Picks. It was the closest thing I’ve ever had to judge because I LOVED both Inside Out and Anomalisa SO SO SO MUCH. Each one has their own appeal which makes them equally good. I just thought Anomalisa was less ‘forced’ mainly because it’s the less mainstream one and doesn’t go out trying to please children. It’s an adult animation film and one that ultimately captures the vapidity of quotidian life and the surrealistic manifestations of suppression and repressed feelings. The characters moved me the most.

Best Documentary Feature

Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Should Win: Winter On Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom

Will Win: Amy

Winter on fire, phonecallamy black.jpg

I know alot of critics out there who love Amy and it has won a multitude of awards. The small minority out there think The Look Of Silence is better. So naturally, I haven’t found anyone who thought one of the other three were better. For me, Winter On Fire is the most invigorating and heart-warming one out there which focuses on a collective’s strength in brotherhood and unison. There’s something very inspiring for a nation who banded together in times of dark political times, and fought for freedom as one. It’s current and universal.

Best Film Editing

The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Will Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

If only there was one more catgeory for best visuals then I could award that to the revenant and this one to mad max without feeling split. But because this one is purely on editing, there’s no doubt Mad Max shot and edited the most insane and exhilirating sequences while making everything seem coherent.

Best Song

“Fifty Shades of Grey”
“Racing Extinction”
“Spectre”
“The Hunting Ground”
“Youth”

Should Win: The Hunting Ground, Till It Happens To You

Will Win: The Hunting Ground, Till It Happens To You

It’s a powerful song about the need for more sympathy, awareness and understanding from the public about rape in colleges. Although I would have nominated 5 others songs, Lady Gaga’s Till It Happens To You is the best of the lot.

Best Original Score

“Bridge of Spies”
“Carol”
“The Hateful Eight”
“Sicario”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: The Hateful Eight

Ennio Morricone’s been sweeping the awards left and right and will most definitely win given his long record of not having won. It’s also because his music here is so sinister and gripping. I liked the Star Wars one more than the rest though and thought it really had the otherworldly feeling of wonder.

Best Digital Effects

“Ex Machina”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

Should Win: The Revenant

Will Win: The Revenant

Wait why isn’t Mad Max here? Hmm, weird. But The Revenant impressed me the most.

 

Best Costume Design

“Carol”
“Cinderella”
“The Danish Girl”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Revenant”

Should Win: Mad Max:Fury Road

Will Win:Mad Max Fury Road

Mad Max costume.png

It’s the most radical of them all and I like a rebel. It captured the post-civilization dirty,reggued and scavenger kind of look that perfectly suited the film’s themes.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared”
“The Revenant”

Should Win: Mad Max:Fury Road

Will Win:Mad Max Fury Road

Same reason as above. It’s the most inventive of the lot and looks dope as hell.

Best Production Design

“Bridge of Spies”
“The Danish Girl”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”

Should Win: The Revenant

Will Win: The Revenant

mad max john seale

VS

the revenant skulls.jpg

 

Beautiful.Lush.Epic.Natural. Need I say more? Just thinking about how difficult it was find the perfect environment and setting in the great wild winter boggles my mind and goes far beyond what CGI can do. In Inarritu’s own words (paraphrased cos I don’t remember the exact quote haha), “If we had used green screens, everyone can sit back, have a coffee and be happy, but the movie will look like shit.”

Best Sound Editing

“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Sicario”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Wil Win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Essentially, if you haven’t already realized, this year’s technical awards like sounds, editing, visuals, etc…all boil down to the Big Three (Mad Max, The Revenant and Star Wars). It’s going to be interesting to see who gets what because there’s so many of these awards…I have a feeling that the Academy will try to break up the awards and give each of the three a fair share…but it’s just as possible that they root for one all the way. If they do, it’s likely to be Mad Max. I think. Definitely going to be interesting to see what happens.

Best Sound Mixing

“Bridge of Spies”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Star Wars: The Force Awakens”

Should Win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Will Win: Mad Max:Fury Road

bb-8.png

I gave best sound production to Star Wars in my very own awards picks, so I’m rooting for it. Mad Max sounded a little too jarring at times and The Revenant relied mostly on a mix of heavy breathing and rhythmic beats. Star Wars sounds were more complex. But hey I’m no expert. Just a film blogger haha.

 

Make it a three way. Thought Leo and Tom Hardy’s fight to the death was brutal? Throw in the Bear. This is what’s going down for the Oscars.

The Big Three for Best Picture

      the revenant leo posterspotlight.jpgThe Big Short poster.PNG

The Big Three for all the technical awards

       the revenant leo postermad max posterstar wars the force awakens wallpaper

I’ll be watching and providing my live reactions on twitter @FilmandNuance

Who are you rooting for?

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10 Comments Add yours

  1. Chloe Lauren says:

    If Leonardo Di Caprio doesn’t win this year, I will be surprised!!!

    Liked by 1 person

  2. awesome predictions! I definitely agree about Brie Larson and Leo and of course Emmanuel Lubezki’s cinematography was gorgeous. Room is such a beautiful film and I think it deserves best picture which sadly it probably won’t win

    Liked by 1 person

  3. John Charet says:

    You made a mistake in one of the predictions, it is Visual not digital effects and Mad Max: Fury Road was nominated for it 🙂 As for my predictions, I think you read my most recent blog post to know that 🙂 I want Mad Max: Fury Road to win all of what it was nominated for 🙂 Keep up the great work as always 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Keith says:

    Great post. Still rooting for and hoping for a surprise win for Spotlight. But I won’t be upset if The Revenant wins. Big fan of it. I do hope Spotlight wins for Original Screenplay. I think it is a major accomplishment. Also rooting hard for Son of Saul for Foreign Language film

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Hely N. says:

    You have been proven right on a number of categories!
    SPOILER AHEAD!
    I was literally whooping on the couch when Leonardo DiCaprio won! It was brilliant. His speech was great!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. jwforeva says:

      Haha I screamed when he won! So happy for him 🙂

      Liked by 1 person

  6. See I always tell you there is no chance we would ever watch movies together. your best pic choice sums that all up! hahahahaha I hope 2016 brings us many more movies…we won’t watch together.. 😀

    Liked by 1 person

    1. jwforeva says:

      Aw man, it’s just one movie we really disagree on right? Haha speaking of 2016, I’m pretty excited for it. Lets see if we agree on more…Haha I didn’t dislike any of the best pic nominees though, just felt some were better !

      Liked by 1 person

  7. John Charet says:

    I just posted Part 3 of 3 of my thoughts regarding The Academy Awards on my blog 🙂 Once again keep up the great work as always 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

    1. jwforeva says:

      Great! Thanks John you’re always so supportive!

      Like

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